Fourteen years of weekly adult attendance across both Sunday services — the pre-COVID baseline, the 2020–21 drop, and where the recovery stands today. Source: Walnut Weekly Attendance Report, loaded July 21, 2026.
11:00 AM recovered faster and more fully after COVID (floor of 117 in 2020, back to 153–168 since 2023). 8:30 AM was hit harder — it fell to 85 in 2021 and has plateaued at 125–130 for three straight years, well below its pre-COVID ~163.
Combined attendance now runs ~288 adults per Sunday vs ~333 pre-COVID. Nearly the entire remaining gap sits in the 8:30 service — if there's one lever, it's rebuilding early-service attendance.
YTD, 8:30 AM averages 125 vs 130 last year and 11:00 AM 163 vs 168. Not a decline to alarm over, but momentum has stalled — worth watching through the fall, historically the stronger season (Aug & Oct 2024–25 were peak months).
Easter 2025 hit 251 at 11 AM, Christmas 2025 380, and Jan 18, 2026 spiked to 272. Big days still pull 55–130% above a normal Sunday — the invite culture works when there's a clear occasion to invite to.
| Date | Observation | Flag |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 20, 2025 | 11:00 AM = 251 — Easter Sunday | Explained |
| Aug 17, 2025 | Training Center Dedication — combined service (8:30 AM merged into 11:00 AM = 351) | Explained |
| Dec 20–21, 2025 | Split weekend: 8:30 = 263, 11:00 = 380 — Christmas services | Explained |
| Jan 18, 2026 | 11:00 AM = 272 — unexplained spike; likely a special service, worth confirming | Verify |